From Julie C

Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Total electorate last time for our Constituency was 76041. Of these 51782 of these actually voted.

The local Ward total share of this vote amounted to 6009 people, 1863 voted Conservative, 1738 voted Labour, 1976 voted Liberal. 431 people locally voted for Other parties (includes Greens).

For the Consituency (as a whole) in 2010 the combined vote for BNP and UKIP was 2938 and for the Greens the total was 858.

Some of those Liberal Voters, will change their vote this time. The Tories may lose some to UKIP, Labour may lose some voters to the Greens and possibly UKIP. There's no BNP candidate, so I reckon most of those will go UKIP.

The present overall percentages nationally (according to the Poll of Polls) are approx 34% each for Conservative and Labour, UKIP are on 14%, Liberals 8%, Green 5%. Those votes are spread across the country, and though the Liberals have less than UKIP and not much more than the Greens, Liberal voters are concentrated in a few seats and therefore are likely to get 20-30+ seats, whereas the max for UKIP may be nearer 4 or 5. Green may well stay on 1 seat despite a much increased vote nationally.

Sorry if I've lost you with this lot. My point really is think before you vote. What do you want the outcome to be in our Constituency as a whole? Who wants Whittaker as our MP?

From Graham Barker

Thursday, 16 April 2015

'Who wants Whittaker as our MP?' In all probability, a healthy majority. The left may be expert at agonising but the right tends to be more expert at actually voting. I hope I'm wrong but I think the 'please not Miliband' factor will kill it for Labour in the constituency as a whole.

In any case, surely one thing we can thank Craig Whittaker for is stopping Steph Booth from getting elected last time round. Of Julie's statistics, the most alarming is that Booth - a truly dreadful candidate - came only 125 votes behind Whittaker in our ward. She was much more substantially beaten overall, so maybe the unpalatable lesson we should take on board is that 'think before you vote' is done better in other parts of the constituency.

From Mo Norwood

Thursday, 16 April 2015

Let's just talk about Josh Fenton Glynn here.

He has spoken well on the NHS provision and education in Calder valley and local transport, to state 3 issues only. He is right on the ball when it comes to knowing what we need here and has shown integrity and dedication throughout this campaign. Listen to him at the hustings if you can.

Adult politics you want?

Vote for Josh.

From Paul Clarke

Thursday, 16 April 2015

'Who wants Whittaker as our MP?' In all probability, a healthy majority.'

I think when we are considering something as important as electing an MP we should avoid unsubstantiated generalisations. In fairness most of the debate so far has avoided meaningless claims like that one.

I wonder if Graham could provide any concrete evidence for his claim?

From Ian M

Thursday, 16 April 2015

Going on the results of the last election Paul, I would say that yes, a majority do want Craig Whitaker as the Calder Valley MP. Until the result of the election in May anything else is just hearsay and unsubstantiated speculation!

From Paul Clarke

Friday, 17 April 2015

Ian, I thought you'd made a good point until I realised you had got your tenses mixed up.

You said a majority do want Whittaker as our MP when in fact as parliament is dissolved we no longer have an MP of any colour.

It is in fact accurate to say that a majority on 2010 did want him not do want him because as you rightly point out we won't know until the early hours of May 8 what the voters do or do not want.

From Eleanor Land

Friday, 17 April 2015

If the only positive for Craig Whittaker's period in office is that he stopped Steph Booth being elected, then his chances of re-election would not be great.

I cannot think of one positive thing he has done to enhance the quality of life for the people in this valley.

We have had two major incidents of flooding since he took office, the MPs covering the Somerset flooding areas achieved millions of state aid for their area. What did our MP achieve, a photo opportunity with the PM.

Some of our schools are falling apart. What has Whittaker achieved, a toe curling photo opportunity for himself standing on the roof of one of them.

The sooner he is gone the better. Then we can have an MP, Josh Fenton Glynn, who actually gets some results for this valley

From Ian M

Friday, 17 April 2015

Going on the results of the last election Paul, I would say that yes, a majority do want Craig Whitaker as the Calder Valley MP. Until the result of the election in May anything else is just hearsay and unsubstantiated speculation!

From Graham Barker

Friday, 17 April 2015

Paul asks for concrete evidence from me about the probability of Craig Whittaker holding the seat. There can be no such thing as concrete evidence of course, but here's the best I can do:

• Since 1987 the highest achievable majority in Calder Valley has been around 6000. Chris McCafferty managed 6255 in 1997 and saw it progressively diminish in 2001 and 2005. Craig Whittaker managed 6431 in 2010, so if the same trend holds good he'll see his majority reduced but not overturned.
• There's a transference factor to consider: vote Josh and you're buying into Miliband; vote Craig and you're buying into Cameron. Based on popularity trends, I think more waverers will prefer Cameron than Miliband.
• Josh may be passionate and committed but he's young. Craig is the incumbent and has much more political and (arguably) work and life experience. That's a potentially significant advantage to Craig, perhaps particularly with older voters.
• Josh isn't female. This may be a complete red herring but since 1979 the only successful Labour candidate in Sowerby/Calder Valley has been a woman, the excellent Chris McCafferty.
• Like Eleanor, I'm hard pressed to think of anything positive that Craig Whittaker has achieved. But neither can I think of anything that makes him toxic. Many voters may rate him no worse than a dull but safe pair of hands - and that's the principle on which a great many people get appointed to key jobs.

All that is why, on the balance of probabilities, I think Craig is a more likely winner than Josh. But please don't draw any conclusions from that about the way I'll vote.

From Eleanor Land

Friday, 17 April 2015

Voting against same sex marriage, for the bedroom tax, the privatisation of the NHS by stealth, the attack on the vulnerable and disabled, and for lowering tax for the rich whilst hammering the rest of us, are all pretty toxic in my book.

Safe pair of hands? No-one will be safe if those sociopaths get a majority.

I don't believe being older or so called experienced has made
Craig Whittaker a good MP. We should judge him by what he has achieved, which is very little.

From Jan Bridget

Saturday, 18 April 2015

I wasn't going to vote because I think the system doesn't work - it doesn't represent the needs of the most needy.

And there doesn't appear to be a party that represents my views fully.

Whilst I agree mostly with Green policies the reality is that it is between Labour and Tory. And to vote for the Greens or any other minority party is highly likely to let the Tories in again.

As a person who has fought for equality most of my life I urge people to vote Labour: firstly to get an LGBT-friendly MP and get rid of a homophobe (isn't it ironic that the Upper Valley is meant to have a larger than average LGBT community and yet we have a homophobic MP?)

Secondly, I believe all of our young people should be safe and have equal opportunities to acquire a good education, one that, at the very least, is free from bullying of all kinds, including homophobic bullying. Labour, LibDems and the Greens have all promised to tackle homophobic bullying but the reality is that we stand more chance of this happening if it is a Labour government.

From Paul Clarke

Sunday, 19 April 2015

It's sad in the absence of concrete evidence we end up with exactly the sort of 'unsubstantiated generalisations' I'd hoped we might avoid.

So Josh is young and so what? I'm probably classed as an older voter these days and I could care less what age someone is. Can you imagine the outrage if we said someone was too old to be taken seriously?

It is indeed a red herring and a unsubstantiated generalisation to suggest that only female Labour candidate can get elected as Calder Valley MPs. Not only that it is incredibly patronising to suggest that three time election winner Chris McCafferty only won because she was was a woman.

Chris was actually a very good candidate who won in 1997 because she was standing for Labour not because she was merely a woman as we are not living and voting in the 1950s. Women win elections these days as do men.

if people can be bothered to do even a basic net trawl then they will find plenty of concrete evidence on which to base their 'unsubstantiated generalisations' otherwise you do end up with red herrings.

From Dave G

Monday, 20 April 2015

Nothing that makes Whittaker toxic? Apart from being a Tory MP, having a dust up on the Mytholmroyd garage forecourt with his own son was a bit dodgy, his homophobia and being a Tory MP....ooh I said that twice, but it's pretty awful.

From David T

Monday, 20 April 2015

Article in the Guardian says that Caroline Lucas and Tory Anna Soubry are being targeted by a 'Coalition for Marriage' for having supported same sex unions whilst the same group is praising our Tory candidate Craig Whittaker for opposing same sex marriage.

From Andy M

Tuesday, 21 April 2015

Thing is Jan, we don't, for better or worse, have an Upper Calder Valley constituency.

From Jan Bridget

Tuesday, 21 April 2015

Thanks Andy, got to admit I wasn't totally aware of that!

Interesting Labour have published their LGBT manifesto today and I, for one, am delighted with it - it suggests (I use this word carefully) that they are actually aware of the key issues, which is more than can be said for the other parties. Here's the link

From Allen Keep

Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Labour seems to have gone very quiet on its pledge to repeal the Health and Social Care Bill in it's first queen's speech. I don't recall Milliband even mentioning it in his TV debate?

Surely this would galvanise votes amongst the millions of workers users and supporters of the NHS who are opposed to the privatisation of our health care system and tap into the hatred of this government and what they have done to our public services?

Perhaps the silence is because Labour are not prepared to tell us what would they would replace the odious Bill with? Interestingly, it is Caroline Lucas (Green) and (would you believe it) a Lib Dem MP who are proposing a reinstatement of the NHS Bill which is far more radical in clearly proposing to put the NHS back in the hands of the secretary of state from whom the Con Dem government ripped it away and very explicit about reversing privatisation.

I understand 8 current Labour MPs (beating UKIP by 3) are supporting this Bill at the moment including one I much respect, the timelessly principled John McDonnell. 30 prospective Labour parliamentary candidates have also pledged to support the Bill.

UI'd be interested to know where Josh Fenton-Glynn and Calderdale Labour stands on this issue?

From Julie C

Sunday, 26 April 2015

The betting odds today on who will win our seat are as follows:

Conservative 2/5
Labour 15/8
UKIP 50/1
Lib Dem 66/1
Green Party 150/1

So it looks like Craig Whittaker is likely to keep his job. In the overall Poll of Polls, the Tories are today 2 seats ahead of Labour.

Please don't believe those people who say it doesn't matter if the Tory party win. For everyone at the sharp end of cuts it matters hugely, for schools and hospitals it's critical.

If you still want to demonstrate your support for another party go to Voteswap.org and do it that way. Keep Craig Whittaker out. He does not deserve to hold this seat in my opinion.

From Jan Bridget

Thursday, 30 April 2015

If anyone is thinking of voting for Craig Whittaker and cares about human rights, see how he voted on issues concerning human rights.

From Eleanor Land

Saturday, 2 May 2015

Thanks for the info on his voting record. In my opinion anyone with these views is in denial about how the population has moved on in the 21st century. I don't want someone with these out of date views representing me in Parliament.

From Paul D

Sunday, 3 May 2015

The single possible outcome for the Green voters will be to very slightly affect the outcome. The system is flawed and those parties who benefit from that have created this sort of nonsensical self absorption at the edges. The Greens will enjoy comparing any margin of victory or defeat to their vote and make the spurious correlation between the two.

The main factors that should see the end of a quite odious (in my personal opinion) MP is that the Liberals have been damaged by association with a very poor government, and women are repelled equally by both Whitttaker and UKIP. The Greens will vote Green and can be certain that behind their integrity their impact is almost nothing. A system that is flawed has led to the Greens becoming more of a repository for disaffected cynics than a political force. Whatever the outcome lets not get hung up on the idea that Greens voting Green is relevant.

From Graham Barker

Tuesday, 5 May 2015

In light of Craig Whittaker's appalling misjudgement in retweeting the Richard Littlejohn headline about Jimmy Savile, I need to revise my earlier opinion that CW hadn't done anything to make himself toxic. At the eleventh hour, he has. A neat two for the price of one, Craig - you've proved that whatever mind you've got is both deeply unpleasant and second-hand.

From Andy G

Wednesday, 6 May 2015

The one good thing to come out of the odious Mr Whittaker's appalling misjudgement in re-tweeting Littlejohn's Jimmy Savile comments may be that he has, hopefully, written his own political obituary.

How any right-thinking person - morally as well as politically - can still contemplate voting for this man is beyond my comprehension.

Given the media coverage yesterday afternoon of his latest faux pas, I suspect that he has damaged his party's reputation and electoral chances far beyond the boundaries of our constituency. Let's hope so!

From Eleanor Land

Thursday, 7 May 2015

The victims of Savile are the important people here. The article by Littlejohn is sick, the fact that a reporter thinks it appropriate to make a political joke about that evil man's activities is unbelievable.

As for Craig Whittaker retweeting this and refusing to account for his actions it tells us everything we need to know. He isn't fit to represent the people of this valley and I hope today they vote him out.

See also

HebWeb General Election section

Hebden Bridge Hustings